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doug-wadedoug-wade
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Add predict, rank, standings commands
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7 files changed

+838
-52
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7 files changed

+838
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lines changed

‎commands/create.js‎

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@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ module.exports = async (argv) => {
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db.run(`DROP TABLE IF EXISTS teams`),
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db.run(`DROP TABLE IF EXISTS matches`),
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db.run(`DROP TABLE IF EXISTS competitions`),
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db.run(`DROP TABLE IF EXISTS rankings`),
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]);
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await Promise.all([
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db.run(`CREATE TABLE teams (
@@ -44,5 +45,11 @@ module.exports = async (argv) => {
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FOREIGN KEY(awayteam) REFERENCES teams(teamid),
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FOREIGN KEY(matchcompetition) REFERENCES competitions(competitionid)
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);`).then(() => db.run(`CREATE UNIQUE INDEX idx_uniquematches ON matches(hometeam, awayteam, date);`)),
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db.run(`CREATE TABLE rankings (
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rankingteamid INTEGER NOT NULL,
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elo INTEGER NOT NULL,
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date INTEGER NOT NULL,
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FOREIGN KEY(rankingteamid) REFERENCES teams(teamid)
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);`).then(() => db.run(`CREATE UNIQUE INDEX idx_uniquerankings ON rankings(rankingteamid, date);`)),
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]);
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}

‎commands/predict.js‎

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@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
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const db = require('sqlite');
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const fs = require('fs-extra');
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const teams = require('../data/teams');
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const results = require('../data/results');
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module.exports = async (argv) => {
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const {dbPath, verbose, _} = argv;
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if (verbose) {
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console.info(`using db in ${dbPath}`);
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}
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await db.open(dbPath, { Promise });
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// pop the command name
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_.shift();
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let hometeam, awayteam;
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if (_[1] === 'at') {
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hometeam = _[2];
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awayteam = _[0];
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} else if (_[1] === 'vs') {
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hometeam = _[0];
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awayteam = _[2];
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} else {
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throw new Error(`Unrecognized conjunction ${_[1]}; please use "at" or "vs"`);
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}
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const homeTeamStanding = await db.get(`
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SELECT teamname, elo
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FROM rankings
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INNER JOIN teams on teams.teamid = rankings.rankingteamid
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WHERE date = (
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SELECT max(date)
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FROM rankings
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WHERE rankings.rankingteamid = teams.teamid
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)
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AND (teams.abbreviation = "${hometeam}" OR teams.teamname = "${hometeam}")
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ORDER BY elo DESC
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`);
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const awayTeamStanding = await db.get(`
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SELECT teamname, elo
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FROM rankings
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INNER JOIN teams on teams.teamid = rankings.rankingteamid
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WHERE date = (
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SELECT max(date)
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FROM rankings
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WHERE rankings.rankingteamid = teams.teamid
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)
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AND (teams.abbreviation = "${awayteam}" OR teams.teamname = "${awayteam}")
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ORDER BY elo DESC
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`);
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if ((homeTeamStanding.elo + 100) > awayTeamStanding.elo) {
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console.log(`I predict ${homeTeamStanding.teamname} will win.`);
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} else {
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console.log(`I predict ${awayTeamStanding.teamname} will win.`)
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}
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}

‎commands/rank.js‎

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const db = require('sqlite');
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const fs = require('fs-extra');
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const teams = require('../data/teams');
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const results = require('../data/results');
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module.exports = async (argv) => {
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const {dbPath, verbose} = argv;
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if (verbose) {
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console.info(`using db in ${dbPath}`);
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}
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await db.open(dbPath, { Promise });
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const startDate = new Date('December 11, 1973').getTime();
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const startElo = 1300;
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console.log(`seeding table with start elo ${startElo} on date ${startDate}`);
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await Promise.all(teams.map(team => db.run(`
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INSERT INTO rankings (rankingteamid, elo, date) VALUES (
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(SELECT teamid FROM teams WHERE teams.abbreviation = "${team.abbreviation}"),
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${startElo},
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${startDate}
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)
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`)));
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const matches = await db.all(`
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select
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competitions.k,
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hometeam,
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awayteam,
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homegoals,
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awaygoals,
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matches.date as date
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from matches
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inner join competitions on competitions.competitionid = matches.matchcompetition
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order by date ASC
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`);
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console.log(`processing ${matches.length} matches`);
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for (const match of matches) {
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const awayranking = await db.get(`
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select
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rankings.elo,
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rankings.date
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from rankings
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inner join (
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select
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max(date) as date,
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max.rankingteamid
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from rankings as max
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where max.rankingteamid = ${match.awayteam}
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group by max.rankingteamid
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) as maxranking
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on rankings.rankingteamid = ${match.awayteam}
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and rankings.date = maxranking.date
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`);
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const homeranking = await db.get(`
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select
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rankings.elo,
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rankings.date
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from rankings
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inner join (
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select
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max(date) as date,
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max.rankingteamid
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from rankings as max
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where max.rankingteamid = ${match.hometeam}
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group by max.rankingteamid
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) as maxranking
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on rankings.rankingteamid = ${match.hometeam}
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and rankings.date = maxranking.date
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`);
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match.homeranking = homeranking.elo;
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match.awayranking = awayranking.elo;
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let homeElo, awayElo;
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if (match.homegoals < match.awaygoals) {
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homeElo = updateElo({
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match,
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won: false,
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isHome: true
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});
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awayElo = updateElo({
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match,
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won: true,
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isHome: false
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});
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} else if (match.homegoals === match.awaygoals) {
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homeElo = updateElo({
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match,
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won: false,
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isHome: true
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});
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awayElo = updateElo({
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match,
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won: false,
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isHome: false
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});
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} else {
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homeElo = updateElo({
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match,
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won: true,
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isHome: true
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});
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awayElo = updateElo({
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match,
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won: false,
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isHome: false
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});
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}
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await Promise.all([db.run(`
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INSERT INTO rankings (elo, date, rankingteamid) VALUES (
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${homeElo},
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${match.date},
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${match.hometeam}
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)
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`),
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db.run(`
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INSERT INTO rankings (elo, date, rankingteamid) VALUES (
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${awayElo},
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${match.date},
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${match.awayteam}
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)
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`)
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]);
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console.log(`finished processing ${match.hometeam} vs ${match.awayteam} on ${match.date}`);
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}
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}
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function updateElo({match, isHome, won}) {
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console.log(`${JSON.stringify(match)} ${isHome} ${won}`);
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let priorElo, opponentPriorElo;
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if (isHome) {
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priorElo = match.homeranking;
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opponentPriorElo = match.awayranking;
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} else {
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priorElo = match.awayranking;
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opponentPriorElo = match.homeranking;
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}
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const k = match.k;
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console.log(`priorElo ${priorElo} opponentPriorElo ${opponentPriorElo} k ${k}`);
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const eloDifference = priorElo - opponentPriorElo;
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let homeAdjustedEloDifference;
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if (isHome) {
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homeAdjustedEloDifference = eloDifference + 100;
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} else {
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homeAdjustedEloDifference = eloDifference - 100;
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}
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const x = homeAdjustedEloDifference / 200;
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const sexp = 1 / (1 + Math.pow(10, -x/2));
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console.log(`eloDifference ${eloDifference} x ${x} sexp ${sexp}`);
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let sact;
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if (won) {
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let losingGoals = isHome ? match.awaygoals : match.homegoals;
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if (losingGoals > 5) {
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losingGoals = 5;
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}
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let goalDifferential = Math.abs(match.homegoals - match.awaygoals);
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if (goalDifferential > 6) {
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goalDifferential = 6;
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}
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sact = (1 - (results[losingGoals][goalDifferential] * .01));
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} else {
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let losingGoals = isHome ? match.homegoals : match.awaygoals;
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if (losingGoals > 5) {
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losingGoals = 5;
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}
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let goalDifferential = Math.abs(match.homegoals - match.awaygoals);
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if (goalDifferential > 6) {
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goalDifferential = 6;
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}
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sact = (results[losingGoals][goalDifferential] * .01);
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}
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console.log(`sact ${sact} returning ${priorElo + (k * (sact - sexp))}`);
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return priorElo + (k * (sact - sexp));
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}

‎commands/standings.js‎

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const db = require('sqlite');
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const fs = require('fs-extra');
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const teams = require('../data/teams');
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const results = require('../data/results');
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module.exports = async (argv) => {
7+
const {dbPath, verbose} = argv;
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if (verbose) {
9+
console.info(`using db in ${dbPath}`);
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}
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12+
await db.open(dbPath, { Promise });
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const dateResult = await db.get(`
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SELECT max(date) as date
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FROM rankings
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`);
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const standingsDate = new Date(dateResult.date);
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const standings = await db.all(`
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SELECT teamname, elo
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FROM rankings
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INNER JOIN teams on teams.teamid = rankings.rankingteamid
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WHERE date = (
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SELECT max(date)
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FROM rankings
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WHERE rankings.rankingteamid = teams.teamid
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)
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AND teams.abbreviation NOT IN ('MIA', 'CHV', 'TBM')
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ORDER BY elo DESC
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`);
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console.log(`Standings as of ${standingsDate.toLocaleDateString()}\n`);
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standings.forEach((standing, i) => {
35+
console.log(`${i + 1}.) ${standing.teamname} (${Math.round(standing.elo)})`);
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});
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}

‎data/results.js‎

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module.exports = [
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[47, 15, 8, 4, 3, 2, 1],
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[50, 16, 8.9, 4.8, 3.7, 2.6, 1.5],
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[51, 17, 9.8, 5.6, 4.4, 3.2, 2],
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[52, 18, 10.7, 6.4, 5.1, 3.8, 2.5],
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[52.5, 19, 11.6, 7.2, 5.8, 4.4, 3],
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[53, 20, 12.5, 8, 6.5, 5, 3.5],
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];

‎index.js‎

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@@ -2,6 +2,9 @@
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const dataCommand = require('./commands/data');
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const createCommand = require('./commands/create');
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const importCommand = require('./commands/import');
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const rankCommand = require('./commands/rank');
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const standingsCommand = require('./commands/standings');
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const predictCommand = require('./commands/predict');
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69
process.on('unhandledRejection', (reason) => {
710
console.log('Reason: ' + reason);
@@ -34,6 +37,24 @@ const yargs = require('yargs') // eslint-disable-line
3437
default: '.cached'
3538
})
3639
}, importCommand)
40+
.command('rank', 'import teams', (yargs) => {
41+
yargs.option('dbPath', {
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describe: 'database to read team data from and write elo rankings to',
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default: '.cached/database.sqlite'
44+
})
45+
}, rankCommand)
46+
.command('standings', 'get current standings', (yargs) => {
47+
yargs.option('dbPath', {
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describe: 'database to read team data from and write elo rankings to',
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default: '.cached/database.sqlite'
50+
})
51+
}, standingsCommand)
52+
.command('predict', 'predict a single match', (yargs) => {
53+
yargs.option('dbPath', {
54+
describe: 'database to read team data from and write elo rankings to',
55+
default: '.cached/database.sqlite'
56+
})
57+
}, predictCommand)
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.option('verbose', {
3859
alias: 'v',
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default: false

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