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author = {E. E. Jafarov and V. E. Romanovsky and H. Genet and A. D. McGuire and S. S. Marchenko},
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doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035030},
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issn = {17489326},
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issue = {3},
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journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
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title = {The effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate},
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volume = {8},
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year = {2013},
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}
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@article{Koven2011,
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abstract = {Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH 4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60° N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO 2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO 2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85+ -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH 4/y to 41-70 TgCH 4/y, with increases due to CO 2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH 4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.},
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author = {Charles D. Koven and Bruno Ringeval and Pierre Friedlingstein and Philippe Ciais and Patricia Cadule and Dmitry Khvorostyanov and Gerhard Krinner and Charles Tarnocai},
@@ -96,6 +107,17 @@ @article{McGuire1992
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volume = {6},
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year = {1992},
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}
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@article{Raich1991,
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abstract = {The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) is designed to predict major carbon and nitrogen fluxes and pool sizes in terrestrial ecosystems at continental to global scles. Information from intensively studied field sites is used in combination with continental-scale information on climate, soils, and vegetation to estimate NPP in each of 5888 non-wetland, 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude grid cells in South America, at monthly time steps. The potential annual NPP of South America is estimated to be 12.5Pg/yr of carbon (26.3Pg/yr of organic matter) in a non-wetland areas of 17.0×106km2. Over 50% of this production occurs in the tropical and subtropical evergreen forest region. Model runs generated mean annual NPP estimates for the tropical evergreen forest region ranging from 900 to 1510g.m-2.yr-1 of carbon, with an overall mean of 1170g.m-2.yr-1. Predicted rates of mean annual NPP in other types of vegetation ranged from 95g.m-2.yr-1 in arid shrublands to 930g.m-2.yr-1 in savannas. TEM estimates NPP monthly, allowing for the evaluation of seasonal phenomena. This is an important step toward integration of ecosystem models with remotely sensed information, global climate models, and atmospheric transport models. Seasonal patterns of NPP in South America are correlated with moisture availability in most vegetation types, but are strongly influenced by seasonal differences in cloudiness in the tropical evergreen forests. On an annual basis, moisture availability was correlated most strongly with annual NPP in South America, but differences were again observed among vegetation types. -from Authors},
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author = {J. W. Raich},
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doi = {10.2307/1941899},
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issn = {10510761},
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issue = {4},
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journal = {Ecological Applications},
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title = {Potential net primary productivity in South America: application of a global model},
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volume = {1},
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year = {1991},
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}
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@article{Rantanen2022,
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abstract = {In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover the Arctic region, that during the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature. We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979–2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations. The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent with each other if calculated over a longer period; however the comparison is obscured by observational uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification.},
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author = {Mika Rantanen and Alexey Yu Karpechko and Antti Lipponen and Kalle Nordling and Otto Hyvärinen and Kimmo Ruosteenoja and Timo Vihma and Ari Laaksonen},
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