Fix problem with naive load forecast, issue 516

[davidusb-geek]

Summary by Sourcery

Fix timezone and indexing issues in load forecast method to improve forecast date handling and timezone conversion

Bug Fixes:

• Resolve timezone conversion problems in load forecast by converting forecast dates to UTC and handling timezone-related indexing more robustly

Enhancements:

• Improve forecast date rounding and timezone conversion to ensure consistent and accurate forecast indexing

[sourcery-ai]

Reviewer's Guide by Sourcery

This pull request addresses a bug in the naive load forecast within src/emhass/forecast.py. The issue stemmed from inconsistent timezone handling between the historical data index and the forecast dates. The fix involves ensuring that the forecast index is converted to UTC and rounded to the nearest frequency, and then converting the timezone of the forecast index to match the timezone of the forecast dates after the intersection.

Sequence diagram for naive load forecast with timezone conversion

sequenceDiagram
    participant Forecast as Forecast Module
    participant HistoricalData as Historical Data
    participant ForecastDates as Forecast Dates

    Forecast->>HistoricalData: Load historical data
    Forecast->>ForecastDates: Convert forecast dates to UTC
    Forecast->>ForecastDates: Round forecast dates to nearest frequency
    Forecast->>HistoricalData: Find intersection between historical data and forecast dates
    Forecast->>ForecastDates: Convert timezone of forecast index to match forecast dates
    Forecast->>Forecast: Return load forecast

Loading

File-Level Changes

Change	Details	Files
Fixed an issue in the naive load forecast method where the timezones of the forecast index were not correctly aligned, leading to incorrect forecast results.	Removed timezone localization and conversion of the data index when loading data from pickle. Converted the forecast dates to UTC and rounded them to the nearest frequency to ensure proper intersection with the forecast index. Converted the timezone of the forecast index to match the timezone of the forecast dates after the intersection.	src/emhass/forecast.py

Possibly linked issues

• Problem with Naive Load forecast #516: The PR fixes the shifted load forecast by ensuring the timezone is handled correctly.
• Problem with Naive Load forecast #516: This PR fixes the load forecast issue mentioned in the issue by ensuring the correct timestamps are used.

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[sourcery-ai]

Hey @davidusb-geek - I've reviewed your changes - here's some feedback:

Overall Comments:

• It looks like you've commented out some timezone conversions, can you explain why?

Here's what I looked at during the review

• 🟢 General issues: all looks good
• 🟢 Security: all looks good
• 🟢 Testing: all looks good
• 🟢 Complexity: all looks good
• 🟢 Documentation: all looks good

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[codecov]

Codecov Report

All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests ✅

Project coverage is 66.47%. Comparing base (b01eada) to head (9eeb93d).
Report is 19 commits behind head on master.

Additional details and impacted files

@@            Coverage Diff             @@
##           master     #522      +/-   ##
==========================================
- Coverage   66.53%   66.47%   -0.07%     
==========================================
  Files           8        8              
  Lines        3269     3272       +3     
==========================================
  Hits         2175     2175              
- Misses       1094     1097       +3     

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[sonarqubecloud]

Quality Gate passed

Issues
0 New issues
0 Accepted issues

Measures
0 Security Hotspots
0.0% Coverage on New Code
0.0% Duplication on New Code

See analysis details on SonarQube Cloud